Het rapport geeft aan dat er voldoende bio-grondstoffen beschikbaar zijn om de EU-doelen (RePowerEU: 35 BCM in 2030) te halen, te weten 41 BCM. In 2050 kan zelfs 151 BCM aan groen gas beschikbaar komen.
Toelichting in het Engels:
Biomethane can play an important role in meeting the European Union (EU) 2030 GHG reduction target and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Additionally, biomethane increases European energy security by reducing the dependency on Russian natural gas and can alleviate part of the energy cost pressure on households and companies. The European Commission fully recognises these benefits and thus set a target of 35 billion cubic meters (bcm) of annual biomethane production by 2030 in its recent REPowerEU plan. Today, 3 bcm of biomethane and 15 bcm of biogas are produced in the EU-27. Gas for Climate1 previously estimated the sustainable supply potential of biomethane in the EU-27 and UK at 35 bcm in 2030 and 95 bcm by 2050. Building on the renewed ambition by the EU to accelerate biomethane production and the advancements in technology, we updated our production potentials to reflect these recent developments. In this paper, we apply a unified methodology to identify both the short- and long-term potential of biomethane production in each EU Member State (plus Norway, Switzerland and the UK), based on sustainable feedstocks.
Key findings include:
- Enough sustainable feedstocks are available in the EU-27 to meet the REPowerEU 2030 target (35 bcm). Our estimation shows that up to 41 bcm of biomethane in 2030 (Figure 1) and 151 bcm in 2050 (Figure 2) could be available. This is significant as the current (2020) EU natural gas consumption is 400 bcm (of which 155 bcm was imported from Russia).
- Anaerobic digestion: A potential of 38 bcm is estimated for anaerobic digestion in 2030 for EU-27 increasing to 91 bcm in 2050. The top 5 countries in both 2030 and 2050 consistently include France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain. Key feedstocks in 2030 are manure (33%), agricultural residues (25%) and sequential cropping (21%). This contrasts with 2050 in which sequential cropping dominates (47%), with again a significant contribution from manure (19%), and agricultural residues (17%). Industrial wastewater contributes over 10% of the potential in both 2030 and 2050.
- Thermal gasification: A potential of 2.9 bcm is estimated for thermal gasification in 2030 for EU-27 increasing to 60 bcm in 2050. The top 5 countries in 2030 and 2050 consistently include France, Germany, Spain, Sweden and Italy.7 Key feedstocks in both 2030 and 2050 are forestry residues and wood waste, which collectively represent over 60% of the potential. Even more biomethane potential can be unlocked by looking at additional feedstocks (e.g. biomass from marginal or contaminated land and seaweed, as noted in the REPowerEU plan8), and technologies (e.g. hydrothermal gasification of wet feedstocks, including organic wastes and residues). Renewable methane (or power to methane), produced from renewable electricity and biogenic CO2 captured in biogas upgrading can furthermore contribute additional potential, as can landfill gas.
Following the renewed biomethane ambition by the EU, the 35 bcm target needs to be translated by the Member States into national targets, incorporated into their National Climate and Energy Plans and appropriate measures (e.g. permitting, financing, certification, etc) enacted to scale up their domestic biomethane industries.