Current Trends and Future Expectations
The DNV report identifies that there are no technical limitations hindering further growth of WTGs in size. However, numerical analysis demonstrates that further growth does not necessarily lead to a lower Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE). Instead, the emphasis lies on direct cost reduction for a greater impact on LCoE.
The study examined optimal WTG configurations for various offshore locations. It was found that turbines with lower capacity (12-15 MW) and high specific power density (400-450W/m²) are the most cost-effective. Interestingly, LCoE varies little for WTG capacities between 12-20 MW at high specific power densities. This suggests that the optimal turbine configuration depends on more factors than just the power and rotor diameter of the WTG. Variables such as location-specific conditions, discount rates, and O&M modeling significantly influence cost-effectiveness.
Vision for 2035
It is anticipated that manufacturers of offshore WTGs will primarily focus on their current largest designs and future upgrades enabling incremental growth until 2030-2035. The lifecycle of these platforms is likely to conclude with turbines ranging from 14-18 MW with rotor dimensions between 230-250 meters.
Post-2035: The New Generation
After 2035, new generations of WTG platforms are expected with a limited increase in size compared to their predecessors. However, they will be highly cost-optimized, equipped with new technologies, and maintained using new strategies. It is anticipated that the size of WTGs will increase to 18-24 MW, with rotor dimensions between 250-265 meters. It is important to note that LCoE values are sensitive to factors such as raw material prices, labor costs, discount rates, and operational expenses (OpEx). Significant changes in these factors can affect conclusions regarding the optimal WTG size.
Subsequent Questions and Considerations
As the industry adapts to these projected changes, important questions arise:
- How can we further optimize the production and maintenance of future WTGs?
- What new technologies will play a role in the next generation of offshore wind turbines?
- How will changes in the global economy, such as fluctuations in raw material prices, impact the development of WTGs?